Forum:2009 Atlantic hurricane season
January Happy New Years! Might as well fashion this one to keep up with years. Jake52 09:47, 9 January 2009 (UTC) Pre-season predictions/mid-season outlooks Hi. The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is almost here, and I wanted to start a section on guessing the number of storms/landfalls/retired names here. I think there will be 11-14 storms, 4-7 hurricanes, 2 or 3 major hurricanes, 4 US landfalls with at least one being a major hurricane, although more or the same landfalls elsewhere, and 1-3 retired names. I think it will be above average, but nowhere close to 2008, 2004, or 2005. Anyone have other predictions? 20:47, 18 March 2009 (UTC) 8-11 NS, 3-5 H and 2-4 MH which is the forecast, season will begin late and here is more. June Storm 1: June 21-25 forming near Puerto Rico and move west. August Storm 2: August 2-4 forming in the Gulf and move west. Hurricane 1, Storm 3 August 5-18 forming near the Cape Verdes and move west, peak as a cat 2, moving slowly west snd northwest, eventually hit Cape Race. Major Hurricane 1, Hurricane 2, Storm 4, August 6-12, rush through the East Coast. Storm 5, August 14-16, only effecting South America. Storm 6, August 30-6. September Major Hurricane 2, Hurricane 3, Storm 7 September 16-24. Major Hurricane 3, Hurricane 4, Storm 8 September 21-9. Strogest storm. October Storm 9, October 11-29. November Storm 10, November 26-29. 00:13, 26 April 2009 (UTC) :Oh, it does not include depressions. 18:56, 2 June 2009 (UTC) May AoI: Southern/western carribean GFS is predicting a TS in about 2 weeks in the southern Caribbean! Early season storm maybe??? [[User:TDI19|'~Hi, it is TDI19!!!']] [[User talk:TDI19|'...To...']] 02:38, 26 April 2009 (UTC) If you see the pattern here, 2006 ends early, 2007 begins early, Barry has nearly form in May. The Carribeans had Paloma, which made it end late. A good site to track the formation probability of storms http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html. 03:43, 26 April 2009 (UTC) :Here's my prediction on the date of formation of the first named storm of the year: May 8. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:49, 26 April 2009 (UTC) ::Well, anything could happen, it may beat Arlene's record. 22:37, 26 April 2009 (UTC) ::Mistracked, nearly moving into the west coast of South America now. 04:34, 28 April 2009 (UTC) :::Don't even waste your time with east of the islands until at LEAST June. And even that is extremely rare because there is extreme shear... if it somehow makes it through that you could see a wave become a storm in the Carribean but that's rare. I used to fantasize about crazy April african waves somehow catching a break in the shear and somehow developing in cold waters... it just can't happen (at least until global warming ramps up a bit :D) -Winter123 21:58, 28 April 2009 (UTC) ::::What islands? Cape Verde? And which area east of Central America? I think some thunderstorm south of Panama is one to watch for, GFS model is forecasting a tropical storm to form somewhen in early May over th southern Carribeans. 23:38, 28 April 2009 (UTC) :::::Leeward/Windward are generally referred to as "the islands" -Winter123 22:38, 30 April 2009 (UTC) I would actually watch the area east of central america. Looking at the satellite I'm having flashbacks to other early season storms. Plus the monster ridge over the east coast. -Winter123 22:24, 28 April 2009 (UTC) :From TWD: AN QUASI STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER S AMERICA IS :CURRENTLY ESTIMATED NEAR 05N60W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE :EXTENDS NW ACROSS COLOMBIA TO NEAR BELIZE. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE :FROM CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE E PACIFIC ITCZ...AND SOME :INTENSE LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...IS :STREAMING NE ACROSS THE RIDGE THEN TURNING ENE ACROSS HISPANIOLA :AND CONTINUING E ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 22N. ANOTHER :AREA OF DENSE CIRRUS...ORIGINATING FROM INTENSE CONVECTION OVER :COLOMBIA...IS SPREADING NE ACROSS COLOMBIA AND OVER THE :CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER :LEVELS APPEAR DRY SE OF A LINE FROM PANAMA TO THE VIRGIN :ISLANDS. AT THE LOW LEVELS...ATLC HIGH PRESSURE N OF AREA IS :MAINTAINING FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH :TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ON ISLANDS WITH ELEVATED :TERRAIN...AND STREAKS OF TRADE WINDS CUMULUS ELSEWHERE. 02:09, 29 April 2009 (UTC) ::Ah darn, looks like the most favorible area is over southern mexico. If it can make it into the gulf, or if a burst makes it off south america into the carrib, it's a really favorable environment right there right now. Massive high pressure. Still worth keeping an eye on IMO -Winter123 22:38, 30 April 2009 (UTC) :::If you look closely, it is spining according to water vapor satellite! And it is quite organized, still, strong shear is affecting it, strong outflow is also too difficult to make it strength. A ridge east of it will make a northerly track, it will get weaker as it gets to an area of dry air. Convections over South America looks dense, I'll have to keep an eye on this. 00:36, 1 May 2009 (UTC) ::::Dead over southeast mexico, shear increasing. Now we look to the open atlantic... (see below topic) -Winter123 05:42, 2 May 2009 (UTC) :::::Burst of convection formed again and again. 01:05, 4 May 2009 (UTC) AoI: NE of Puerto Rico Wow, it is really starting to get active in the ATL. See the low there? On water wapor satellite it shows how it is organizing. 00:17, 2 May 2009 (UTC) :Darn you beat me. This came out of nowhere, and no models showed anything. It looks like all the elements are in place for a STS to TS transition. Maybe even hurricane with the jet so far north. we'll see.. Current Water Vapor Loop -Winter123 05:41, 2 May 2009 (UTC) ::Haha guess I'm just crazy. Shear got it overnight. I keep forgetting its barely may because its been so hot outside. -Winter123 15:48, 2 May 2009 (UTC) :::Wow, it's still there. NE of bahamas now. Looks pretty threatening but it's about to be destroyed by a front -Winter123 16:39, 4 May 2009 (UTC) ::::Look at GTWO! 22:24, 13 May 2009 (UTC) :::::Took me a while to figure out what that is, but now that I found it, it shows nothing for Atlantic or E. Pac. Thanks for wasting my time. Invest 90L: Near Florida AoI: Possible Bahamas-> Gulf Storm next week Models generally agree and Jeff Master's blog has a post about it. Latest GFS showing a really unusual track for May. -Winter123 05:02, 15 May 2009 (UTC) :If it become an Ana, Ana of 03 will be beaten. 15:50, 15 May 2009 (UTC) ::Don't double post topics please... Anyway it's still in the air. Tuesday is when to start watching for it near southern florida. -Winter123 00:11, 16 May 2009 (UTC) :::It's another storm! 20:07, 16 May 2009 (UTC) ::::Huh? Well when i posted it looked like it would develop over the bahamas but now it seems it will develop in the SE GOM. And consider registering because IP addresses are annoying. It's amazing how much uncertainty there is for this storm though! -Winter123 21:58, 16 May 2009 (UTC) Current water vapor. Very impressive but no LLC yet. -Winter123 16:54, 17 May 2009 (UTC) :First invest of the year and TWD mentioned it as a tropical wave! 19:00, 17 May 2009 (UTC) ::LLC developed, but strong shear toke over it. 01:30, 18 May 2009 (UTC) :::Have a look at the NAM simulated radar 3 days from now! I think this is our future Ana! A bit worried about it stalling in the GOM for like a week, look how far the ridge goes, way into canada north of the great lakes! -Winter123 04:49, 18 May 2009 (UTC) ::::Invests mean mid chance of formation! 06:42, 18 May 2009 (UTC) Invest 90L Officially an Invest now! However very disorganized and a very complex and hard to predict weather event will occur over the next few days. Should be interesting and soothe some droughts at least. -Winter123 19:27, 18 May 2009 (UTC) :Models are generally forecasting to eventually reach Florida http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png, LBAR and DSHP are going to be more accurate on this one because of the front coming! 20:54, 18 May 2009 (UTC) :Access forbidden! You don't have permission to access the requested object. It is either read-protected or not readable by the server. If you think this is a server :error, please contact the webmaster. :Error 403 :euler.atmos.colostate.edu :Apache/2.0.54 (Fedora) -Winter123 22:57, 18 May 2009 (UTC) ::GFDL is very bullish with 90L, taking it all the way up to 70 knots in the coming days. I don't buy it, not for a second. The dynamics right now are very unpredictable, what with the disorganization of 90L and the developing Gulf low that seems to be moving quicker than the models anticipated. Until this thing develops a well-defined LLC, I wouldn't put much faith in any of the models, least of all the dynamical GFDL and HWRF. That being said, I think the chances of either this or the Gulf low developing into Ana are pretty good; I'd put the chances of us seeing our first named storm within the next couple days at 30%. |'C A I N E R'||''ninety-one| 01:11, 19 May 2009 (UTC) :::We got shenanegans down in the tropics already? I was just getting used to tracking tornadoes. The models like this thing. I'm not sure if I do, but it's obviously got NHC concerned enough to disturb their offseason beauty rest. Does anyone else have a bad feeling about this season? Even if 90L doesn't do anything, we should not be having invests on May 18. There's already a tropical wave moving through the eastern Atlantic. The southern hemisphere just had one of their least active seasons in recent memory and the West Pacific didn't wake up until May 2. I know Dr. Klotzbach and the CSU guys are unimpressed and the word "El Nino" keeps getting tossed around, but, in my experience, when everywhere else is quiet, the Atlantic is usually active (either in number of storms or intensity or both). And I've seen it happen far to many times in the past to not take it seriously. Yes, it's early and I hope I'm wrong (for the sake of those who live on the coast) but I can't shake the feeling. Thus far in 2009, the world's oceans have been quiet...too quiet and I don't like it. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:12, 19 May 2009 (UTC) Invest dropped "JK it actually has no chance of tropical development LULZ"-NHC ... Apparently model consensus is that It's just going to rain itself out and die over the GOM by memorial day. How anti-climactic. I bet if Florida wasn't there it would have a much better chance. But I don't think it's dead yet, it seems to be forming a clear LLCC and MLCC just west of florida. pic-Winter123 22:01, 19 May 2009 (UTC) :This is good news for Floridians. They need all of that rain pretty badly. Looks like it's a no-hoper (for the storm, not the Floridians) from here. Squarethecircle 23:52, 19 May 2009 (UTC) Invest regenerated Is now back up on NRL. Squarethecircle 16:14, 22 May 2009 (UTC) :20% of forming due to land interaction. 23:02, 22 May 2009 (UTC) ::Quoting Special GTWO: "THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS." Storm's Eye 06:28, 23 May 2009 (UTC) :::Emergency update: Very good defined circulation good convective bands and good outflow... only with land interaction. 06:50, 23 May 2009 (UTC) ::::It's made landfall near Mobile, Alabama, with near-TS-strength winds. How you doing, Sky? Flooding expected in the area, but the system is expected to move into S. Ontario by Wednesday night. The Weather Network predicts about 45 mm (1.8 in) of rain from this system, but GFS is predicting 70 mm (2.8 in) of rain! Yikes! We have been pretty dry over the past week, however. Also, some models are hinting at the development of a system east of the US and south of Bermuda by the end of the month. There's a chance it could tap into the warm waters of a Gulf stream loop at around 39N 64W, with temperatures nearly to 30C (85F). 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:21, 23 May 2009 (UTC) :::::Guys, what do you think about 90L? Is it a fully-fledged tropical system? Storm's Eye 13:58, 26 May 2009 (UTC) Currently inland Missouri. 22:39, 27 May 2009 (UTC) Over the Lakes. 16:54, 30 May 2009 (UTC) AoI: East of Bermuda Just look at it. 20:07, 16 May 2009 (UTC) :Very cold core right now, and not forecasted to transition, but it's not impossible. Good place to watch it (you can hit animate at the top) -Winter123 22:00, 16 May 2009 (UTC) ::If NHC is issuing GTWO for the atlantic, it got a chance. See http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/gesatfpr.png. 23:53, 16 May 2009 (UTC) And http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/mainrfps.png. 23:59, 16 May 2009 (UTC) :This one is quite more useful and detailed. Seems a 1% chance of this forming? lol. Don't count on it. -Winter123 01:52, 17 May 2009 (UTC) ::Actually, it it 1% chance of forming right on the spot. 04:20, 17 May 2009 (UTC) :::Definitely subtropical now, right near the center its spinning faster but it's also spinning fast hundreds of miles to the east. But it's horribly lopsided and disorganized and semi-frontal so I doubt it will ever be named. -Winter123 00:39, 18 May 2009 (UTC) ::::Semi-frontal systems are not subtropical. Squarethecircle 02:42, 19 May 2009 (UTC) Become an invest over Azores. 16:34, 2 June 2009 (UTC) AoI: Caribbean Organized thunderstorms. 23:57, 21 May 2009 (UTC) :Now weakened from shear. 23:02, 22 May 2009 (UTC) 01L.ONE Invest 91L Saw this in Weather Underground but no words from NHC yet and there's no mention of it in the Navy's site. Storm's Eye 13:16, 26 May 2009 (UTC) :Now coming out in the Navy's site! Storm's Eye 13:36, 26 May 2009 (UTC) ::I've tracked this one a few days ago, it come from the the outflow of 90L. Pretty good circulation. 22:59, 26 May 2009 (UTC) Looks like it finally got a better chance, look on the satellite. 05:19, 28 May 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression One Off Hatteras, per the NHC. Not sure whether it's Invest 91 or not, as I didn't track it. Have a good (and hopefully safe) season, everyone!--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 15:43, 28 May 2009 (UTC) :Yeah, it's 91L. Honestly did not think that had as much of a chance as 90L did. Forecast to briefly become Ana! --Patteroast 01:13, 29 May 2009 (UTC) ::WTF? Last I saw this thing it was dissipating with a diminishing chance of development. What happened? On satellite, it looks decidedly unimpressive; I'd be stunned if it gets a name, but 24 hours ago I would've been stunned if it got a number. If it does, by some miracle, become Ana, it would be the third consecutive season that's started early (It could be argued that with a TD, it already is). -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 03:41, 29 May 2009 (UTC) :::I watched the satellite animation all night and finally... a burst of convection formed and it got organized in 3 hours and became the first depression of the year, still incredible how the the mess of clouds became the depression, I don't think it got any chance of becoming a TS, already sheared and the cool water. 04:02, 29 May 2009 (UTC) :::I'd certainly argue the season has now started, and it makes for three early starts in a row.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:22, 29 May 2009 (UTC) Finally! There goes some more convection, just a bit more and it is Ana. 05:16, 29 May 2009 (UTC) :No Ana for May. 11:01, 29 May 2009 (UTC) Yep, TD one is gone, and Ana won't come till later. This depression forming marks only the third time on record that a season started early for 3 straight years, after 1951-53 and 1932-34. 23:28, 29 May 2009 (UTC) :Not gone yet, still the tiny circulation %1 for regeneration. 04:42, 30 May 2009 (UTC) June Invest 92L: Azores AoI: Azores http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?subset=AERONET_Azores.2009152.aqua.2km. 22:22, 1 June 2009 (UTC) :Officially on TWO. 00:11, 2 June 2009 (UTC) Invest 92L Invest for now. 16:33, 2 June 2009 (UTC) :Wow, this looks a lot like Vince Jr. Seems doubtful it'll get a name, but it also seemed doubtful that Vince would get a name at first, too. What an odd start to the 2009 season that'd be! --Patteroast 21:07, 2 June 2009 (UTC) ::Regained organization. 23:33, 2 June 2009 (UTC) :::Poofed from NHC and NRL. Some suggests it was subtropical... wow! We had already mind blowing situations early in the season! Storm's Eye 14:15, 4 June 2009 (UTC) 93L. INVEST In the Caribbean. Both GFDL and HWRF predict a cat. 2! 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:59, 27 June 2009 (UTC) July 94L.INVEST Wow, it's boring in here and in Wikipedia. There was already a 94L.invest a couple of days ago. - 00:37, 14 July 2009 (UTC) The Post-Apocalyptic Nuclear Winter that is the Worldwide Tropics I have conducted some of the most extensive research on historical tropical cyclone activity ever by an armchair meteorologist and I have not seen a world this dead since 1977 (the most inactive year worldwide in the Naming Era 1950). The Southern Hemisphere just had one of its least active seasons in many years. The West Pacific is off to a very slow start. It's been a while since WPAC didn't produce a storm until May, as was the case this year. They've had two fewer storms and one fewer major typhoon than they had at this point in the 2008 season. WPAC has had half as many typhoons as they'd had this time last year. As you can see, the Atlantic is also dead. At this point in 2008, Cristobal was four days away. We have yet to have a named storm in 2009. The Eastern Pacific appears to be the only basin that's meeting its quota, so to speak. I have no explanation for this worldwide dead. I don't have any explanation for 1977 either. That year, pretty much every basin saw near record lows in activity. There were just 60 total storms, worldwide, in 1977. The average for the past 30 years is 87. To put this in perspective, 1992 saw 59 ''hurricanes. From what I'm seeing, I doubt 2009 will threaten that low mark but it could well be one of the lowest since. This global quiet is really quite remarkable. The Atlantic looks like a winter wasteland right now. This is more than an El Nino, this is a famine. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:11, 16 July 2009 (UTC) :I think an explanation for this is, in 1995 and onward to 2008, the hurricane seasons have been coming above average, but that active hurricane cycle was said to last for 1 to 2 decades, and I think the active hurricane period that begun in 1995 is coming to a close. If I am right, then starting next year in 2010, and continuing for 20 to 30 years, we will be knocked into another inactive hurricane cycle, just like what happened from the mid 1970's to 1994. If that happens, we will finally get a break from all these storms. And about what you were saying on the inactivity, SkyFury, I have no idea why it's coming so quiet now. So far, we have only seen '''12' tropical storm-strength storms in the entire northern hemisphere alone. 2 from the NIO, 6 from the WPac, which is usually onto their 11th-12th TS on average at this time of year, 4 from the EPac, which is okay at this time, and none in the Atlantic. I don't know what's causing it, although it is giving us a break from these storms; our last break was 2006, when the East Pacific was at it's most active point since 1992, but the Atlantic was rather quiet. 00:12, 25 July 2009 (UTC) ::I was of the understanding that the active period was expected to last 2-3 decades. Also remember, 1997 and 2006 were near or below "average" (as NHC defines it. IMO the past 30 years are a better sampling than the last 50). My point was that typically if the Atlantic is quiet, the Pacific is active and vice versa. This year, everywhere is quiet. I can't remember a drought this severe this late in the year except a few instances that have come up in my research. With a late-arriving El Nino expected, the Pacific might see a late surge but in most El Nino years, the Atlantic is active early but sees a below average Aug-Oct. In 2006, the ATL had had three storms by July 18 (one found in post-analysis). In 1997, the ATL saw record activity in July with four storms. August will tell the tale and one basin might eventually go on a hot streak but I have never seen a July this dead. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:01, 25 July 2009 (UTC) :This year is prob a less active version of 1977 or 1979, Sky, but if this inactivity continues, and the 2009 AHS pulls a 1997 August, we might not see a storm until September, but if the East Pacific sees little storms in August and September, then that basin will have little time left, because the Eastern Pacific dies out like wildfire once October comes in, but this does not ''always happen. In the Atlantic, November isn't always a stranger to major hurricanes, and recently, November has been acting like August in years like '08, '01, and '99. Oh, and by the way, SkyFury, July only sees a storm once every one to two years, making the lack of July activity this year normal, since the last time no storms formed in July was 2004, 5''' years ago. The 2005-2008 streak of July storms lasted four years, making that the most # of consecutive years that storms formed in July on record. August and September are yet to come. If this year pulls a 2004 by now, it could still be a bad year, but it may also just pull a 1914 year as well, and have only one or two storms form. This year still could be average, but looking at the atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic/EPac/WPac, I don't see any storms forming in the next week or two. 21:58, 27 July 2009 (UTC) ::The thing that really strikes me is not so much the lack of named storms but the lack of any activity whatsoever. There haven't even been many suspect areas. It's not like a bunch of invests keep getting nipped in the bud by shear, a la 2007. There's almost been nothing to get nipped. And I'm talking about worldwide, not just the Atlantic. Even the Eastern Pacific has gone quiet now after that little hot streak. I have never seen the West Pacific this quiet. That place is essenially a giant cauldron of boiling hot water and not much to run into. They've had two storms this month, two! And one of those was hardly deserving of a name. It's almost August! The lack of storms in the Atlantic at this point is not entirely surprising. A little unexpected but not unprescidented. The Pacific however, especially WPAC, is downright unbelievable. I've seen Januaries more active than this July has been over there. The word 'desolate' comes to mind when I look at the world's oceans right now. The Atlantic looks like winter; almost no precipitation at all. There are a few cyclonic swirls in EPAC that I guess put it a notch or two above dead. The West Pacific has a swath of heavy showers around the ITCZ but nothing cyclonic. And the Indian Ocean looks almost as dead as the Atlantic. I will say, however, that if you were gonna go to the Caribbean, you couldn't have picked a better month. You get winter weather with hurricane season rates. That's a once-in-a-long-damn-time deal right there! -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 07:45, 29 July 2009 (UTC) :I know, SkyFury. This inactivity makes the Caribbean a '''perfect place to be by now. 1977 and 1979 were also quiet, but some of the storms in those years were notable. In 1977, A cat 5 hit Mexico from the gulf coast, doing heavy damage, in the AHS. In the East Pac, Hurricane heather caused record rainfall in Arizona, and in the West Pac, Typhoon Babe became the last typhoon named after the island it struck in Japan. 1979 was another quiet year, but had thousands of deaths and billions in damage in the AHS, and the strongest tropical cyclone that ever existed formed in the Pacific. In 2009, we have hardly had any storms form ths year so far, and if they did form, they haven't made themselves useful in any way. The basins are still quiet now, but the NIO doesn't get going again until November. The 3 main basins may keep up this inactivity through the rest of this year hopefully, although it's confusing to see no storms active in all 3 basins, especially at this time of year. 23:21, 29 July 2009 (UTC) ::Central Pacific just got a depression (a gift from EPAC) that may become a storm in the next day or two. I agree with your point wholeheartedly. 2004 didn't start until the last day of July and you see how well that went. Some bad storms have come in inactive years. Andrew is one (name one more notable storm in 1992...ST1 doesn't count). And for a season that saw just seven storms and no major hurricanes, there certainly was a lot of dying going on in 1994. So we'll see. Like I said before, August will tell the tale. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:18, 30 July 2009 (UTC) August August is here and storms aren't. 04:38, 3 August 2009 (UTC) AoI: West of Senegal This one's a long way off, but a week from now it'll be heading for the Caribbean. Both the CMC and GFS develop it, and the long-term GFS sends it into the Gulf (very warm waters) before dissapating. Could be one to watch if it can hold together and reach TS status. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:20, 6 August 2009 (UTC) :And as quickly as it comes, it's gone. Today marks the 21st anniversary of the beginning of the 1988 season. Not one season has started later since. However, if you ignore the subtropical storm in April, 1992 didn't start until August 17...and had a grand total of six named storms that year. Just goes to show you that all it takes is one to change the face of a season. 1987 didn't start until August 9. I have to say that I don't see a storm forming by Sunday. 1992 aside, that would make the 2009 season the latest start in 25 years! 1984 didn't get going until August 19 with Subtropical Storm One. Arthur didn't form until August 29. The only modern-era season to start later than that was the Dead Year of Dead Years: 1977 when Anita formed on August 30. 1977 was very nearly the first September start since 1920. It should be noted that many seasons that didn't start until mid-August went on to be fairly active years. 1984 ended up with 13, 1950 started on August 12 and also had 13 including a record 8 major hurricanes (the one record 2005 failed to break). 1949 is another example. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 18:47, 7 August 2009 (UTC) ::This afternoon's TWO is quiet as ever.I've compiled the Dates of first Atlantic tropical cyclones for every year since the deadliest-ever 1780 season for comparison,right now this is the slowest start since 1992 if subtropicals count and 1987 if they don't,but as the NOAA forecast says,late starts don't mean no major hurricanes.And looking over the long history makes clear that there are no patterns to count on,at all!--L.E./ 22:13, 8 August 2009 (UTC)